Why This Partnership Might Not Happen
In spite of the benefits to both companies, a partnership between AOL and Nintendo would not a perfect marriage. Let's begin with the issue I brought up in the previous section: AOL's previous agreement with Sony. The partnership between AOL and Sony was announced a few years ago, and there has been nothing to come of it. Still, that doesn't mean that nothing will come out of it. After all, it is unknown to what scope that partnership was, whether it only applied to the PlayStation 2, or if it was part of a long-term online plan for Sony. Many speculate that Sony plans to internally develop an online gaming service to rival Xbox Live, but plans change. So that could prove to be a fatal blow to the potentials of an AOL-Nintendo partnership.
On the other hand, this could also serve to strengthen the possibilities. The one thing that partnership illustrates is that AOL acknowledges that console online gaming is a growing phenomenon, and that it wants to get in on the action. If Sony did in fact drop AOL in favor of its own service, then that would only serve to strengthen AOL's resolve in that regard. Since Microsoft would have no need for such a partnership, Nintendo is the last logical choice for AOL.
Nintendo is a very Japan-centric company however. As stated previously, a partnership with AOL would do little for their prospects in the Land of the Rising Sun. If there is one thing we have seen with Nintendo, is that it views things from a global perspective. An action (and especially one as drastic as this) that would only benefit one of their markets is certainly not something that would entirely appeal to them.
One thing Nintendo has likely learned with the DS is that its message of innovation with the Revolution will be widely accepted in Japan. With the DS pummeling the PSP (and everything else) in Japan, it is not difficult to predict that Revolution will enjoy much more success in Japan than the GameCube or N64. It may not "pummel" the PlayStation 3, but it will likely be on far more even ground. In America though, Nintendo finds itself in a much more precarious position. While the DS has been very successful in America, it has not been the same phenomenon it has been in Japan. Moreover, western publishers have dominated the American market, and western publishers have thus far seemed far less enthusiastic about the Revolution than some of the eastern ones have.
The deciding factor in the viability of this partnership is the effect of Nintendo's so-called "arrogance." Outsourcing development of Nintendo's online network is certainly not Nintendo's style. The company wants complete control of everything it develops, and if it works so intimately with a company like AOL-Time Warner, it will certainly have to make concessions. Will Nintendo be willing to do that? It is very difficult to say, especially with the Iwata era only just beginning.
Could It, Would It, Should It Happen?
I think out of all the partnerships Nintendo could form to increase their market share, AOL would be the smart and relatively conservative choice. Nintendo would gain the recognition by partnering with one of the largest companies in the world, and still have complete control of its console and games. In addition, it would serve as Nintendo's first direct, head-on attack toward Microsoft and the Xbox. Thus far, Nintendo has ignored Microsoft, and it has cost them. A partnership with AOL would be equivalent to Nintendo saying, "We're aware Microsoft is here to stay and we have an answer." It may require the company to swallow some of that ol' Nintendo pride, but it'd be well worth it.
With that being said, it may be overly conservative. We seek innovation from Nintendo, and if Nintendo were to partner with AOL or a company like them, they will be conceding that their online service will not be any more innovative than Xbox Live. Having a system as unique as the Revolution, it almost seems a shame if they were to make their online services for the Revolution so...mundane. Then again, it certainly is better than what they mustered for the GameCube. Still, in the end, this is not a partnership I want to see happen. In spite of the benefits, it is still a safe move. If Nintendo wants to gain back significant market share, they have to travel a different road than the competition. AOL can not offer them that road.
So Nintendo: look elsewhere. This is not the Promised Land. In nature, the ant uses the aphid to benefit itself, to ensure its survival and dominance in its environment. The ant does not use the aphid as a crutch, because it is not ambitious enough to look for its own food. AOL provides Nintendo with a "food source" if you will, but Nintendo is an extremely versatile company, and in this particular case, could create a far better online service than AOL could offer. It would be a cop-out, really. Still, I think looking at what this partnership could "potentially" bring to Nintendo's online ambitions is a perfect preview of where Nintendo should be going. They should use AOL and their marketing strategies as a reference point, rather than actually having AOL to do the work for them. So, it's nice to think about.
In the next part of our four-part series: Apple and Nintendo. These two companies so similar in so many ways, yet separated by an ocean...could it be a perfect union, or a recipe for disaster?