Common Internet wisdom (if, in fact, there is such a thing in the first place) currently holds that Nintendo is coasting on Wii's continued success. The bubble is going to burst any day, the naysayers hold; Wii Sports won't carry the console forever. It's time to get cracking on all those "Wii" titles we keep hearing about; it's time to give the Wii buyers—those who weren't Nintendo fans before laying eyes on a motion-controlled game of tennis or bowling—a slate of titles they can get into.

Wii Fit, recently released in Japan (to an impressive million sales in its first month on the market), is routinely held up as the prime example of what Nintendo of America purportedly needs to get off its rear and release. It's an easy choice, since it's already proven its mettle in Japan; it's probably also assumed that it's going to mesh perfectly with the Wii Sports audience, who are reportedly "getting in shape" with the game.

However, I don't think it's in NOA's best interests to push Wii Fit out the door all that rapidly, regardless of how eager I personally am to lay hands on the title. I think Nintendo's interests are far better served by holding the title back for at least the 2008 holiday season. Holding back big titles, like Wii Fit might become, is certainly not unheard-of for NOA; the subsidiary certainly appears to regularly juggle its release calendar, often for reasons that defy explanation other than the notion that a certain release day might garner better sales.

So, in true armchair industry analyst fashion, here are the three key reasons why I think Nintendo of America should be sitting on Wii Fit... rather than rushing it out to market.

  1. Wii is still selling out at retail, with no relief in sight. With Nintendo still unable to meet Wii demand at American retail, they clearly have no interest in using a potential big seller to drive console demand. Nintendo went so far as to offer fully-prepaid Wii rainchecks, redeemable in January, for those who couldn't lay their hands on the white box in time for Christmas; they clearly don't have a need to bolster Wii sales beyond the unprecedented numbers the system has been doing since launch.

    Given this situation, Nintendo should concentrate on continuing to direct production to Japan while Wii Fit is still selling well. Holding back on bringing the game—and the manufacturing challenges inherent with the Balance Board—to America will keep the supply chain comfortable, as well as preserving the media blitz that will no doubt accompany its eventual release for the time when NOA actually needs big guns to bring Wii sales back to stratospheric heights.

  2. The Wii Fit crowd may not necessarily gel with the Wii Sports crowd. It's commonly held that if you bought a Wii for Sports, you'll naturally want to move to Fit. While there is almost certainly going to be some overlap, I doubt that—media attention given to the physical aspect of Wii play aside—the two camps are one and the same. Wii Sports is often bought for party or family play, while Fit is a decidedly personal experience.

    If the two crowds are indeed different, Nintendo need not be concerned about the notion that they have to "maintain interest" among the Wii Sports crowd. Indeed, it's been posited that many who bought Wii for Wii Sports have no intention of buying any other titles for the system; an assertion that finds some (admittedly contentious) backing in the rather low tie ratios for the system. But the message, at least, makes sense: when Wii Fit goes out the door, it can do so with the intent of creating a new market—not just buttressing an established one.

  3. Wii Fit is probably a better fit for the holiday season anyway. This is, perhaps, almost too trite to mention, but if there's any one time of year fitness is at the forefront of Americans' minds, it's around the time of the holidays. Unhealthy food abounds, and New Year resolutions largely take the theme of losing weight and getting in shape, so what better time of year to have a product ready to go?

    Media attention is key here; Wii Fit is going to garner stories when it ships, no matter when that it is. By launching closer to the holidays, Nintendo will get coverage of the title in mainstream outlets illustrating that Wii's reach is supposed to go further than the kids or the parties, hopefully spurring some demand for both the system from those yet uncommitted in addition to the title.

Despite my thoughts on when Wii Fit should go out the door, I don't think Nintendo should be sitting on other announced Wii-franchise titles such as Wii Music. These titles are less of a megaton than Wii Fit has the potential to be, and seem at least at the outset to be more of a fit for the existing Wii Sports audience. Getting these titles out the door more quickly will help beef up the Wii library, and might even help improve the system's rather dismal tie ratios.

I personally look forward to Wii Fit whenever it is released; between the playtime I had with the title at E3 2007 and the likely media attention surge that I'll be watching quite closely, it looks like it's going to be an entertaining release indeed. Unlike some that bemoan Nintendo's increasing attention to market-expanding titles over their traditional emphasis, I enjoy this sort of thing quite a bit. I hope there's more in the future.