BBC News has analysis on next-gen development costs by research firm Screen Digest that predicts current-generation console development costs will double to triple in the upcoming generation.
The analysis pegs current-generation costs ranging from $3 million to $6 million for a single game, then predicts next-generation costs could reach $10 million. Based on these figures, game prices are expected to rise, and developers are expected to further reduce their offerings to sequels to proven sequels, cutting the prevalence of original titles even further than we saw in this generation.
Licensing is also expected to become a bigger concern and bigger business for licensors as they realize the value of their properties to publishers.
If the analysis proves correct, we can expect, due to the increasing development costs of the "HD generation", more derivative games, more innovation getting entirely shut out, and the games that we do get will be filled with even more obnoxious advertising.