N-Banter Edition 7: On and Off the Line
Edition: October 24, 2004
Two minds...one site. Two motives...one goal. Two editors...one conversation. You have now entered a dimension unlike any other. This is N-Banter.
In this edition Jeff and Glen discuss Nintendos future strategies concerning online gaming, the Nintendo DS, and Revolution. Can we agree on Nintendo's direction or with each other? Find out in this edition of N-Banter.
Glen: So I've been thinking... I don't think I can name another company, besides Nintendo, that has managed to keep its characters alive for so many years. Heck, even the Simpsons is going to be wrapping up soon. I think it's only inevitable that people eventually grow tired of the familiar. If all you eat is Cheerios everyday for breakfast, you'll soon grow to despise them. I think people naturally need something new and fresh to stimulate their minds and imaginations.
Jeff: Wow. You know I agree in many respects with that. This kind of goes hand in hand with some of the comments I made in my recent article (titled: Playing it Safe). But I think that Nintendo's biggest problem is not that it continues to support its older franchises. The problem is that it spends all of its development resources on this. There is no room for original products in Nintendo's plan.
Jeff: I also believe that Nintendo has been resting on its laurels in terms of art design for a lot of recent franchise-based games as well.
Glen: I do find something interesting though...about what Satoru Iwata said at the recent DS conference. He said something to the effect of "Gamers will be able to download trial software at game stores thanks to the wireless DS technology. Developers and games that have been traditionally overlooked, will now have a greater chance of being seen and experienced by gamers."
Glen: By the way, I find my speculation of Nintendo's strategy earlier this year has turned out to be eerily accurate. Quote from NintendOnline, "The iQue is a test, as well a sign of what's to come. It's basically a culmination of Nintendo and more specifically, Yamauchi's goal from the past two decades. No more fuss with cartridges, CDs or DVDs. Nintendo can transfer its games from the developer directly to the user."
Jeff: I hadn't really thought about this feature until you brought it up. I think it sounds like a really great idea, but how it would actually be done is a mystery.
Glen: Nintendo has done something similar to this in Japan for years. It was called Nintendo Power. You could go into stores and download games for the SNES. Also, like I said earlier, the iQue has a similar format in China.
Glen: Oh, I found it! Here's the exact Nintendo DS quote from Iwata: "Although this won't be available at launch, we're thinking of using the wireless download function to change the way in which people try out upcoming games at retail outlets," said Iwata. "We're thinking of a system where people can download a demo program [from the stores machines], with a time or a usage limit, to their own DS. We hope that this system will allow new potential hits to be recognized by everyone, and that it will help to buck the trend where only sequels are hitting the sales charts."
Jeff: What did users download them to? The iQue downloads to the unit itself.
Glen: Nintendo Power used empty rewritable cartridges. Oh! And guess what was announced the other day? A new peripheral/cable is being released that allows the iQue to download games from the internet. In that NintendOnline article, this is the direction I speculated Nintendo would go...and it's really starting to look like it will come true.
Jeff: Well then, that makes me really wonder whether it works or not. Japan's market is shrinking today and, like the US, only big name titles sell well at all there. Japan's market is actually a lot worse. Only a few big titles like Pokemon and Final Fantasy see impressive sales. Most titles fall off the charts very quickly.
Glen: But Nintendo hasn't done something similar to Nintendo Power in Japan for years. This was back during the Super Nintendo generation (although admittedly, they did have something planned for the Nintendo 64DD, but of course that's another story since the system itself never even got off the ground).
Glen: Anyways, I don't think downloading GameCube-sized games is feasible yet.
Jeff: Maybe, but people download PC demos all the time. I think it is very feasible. I downloaded a PC demo for Beyond Good & Evil before playing it for Cube.
Glen: Nice. Well, Nintendo doesn't have a network set up for the GCN either, so....
Jeff: Demos could be a very big thing. The problem is going to be getting the DS to take off and then somehow giving every retailer the capability to upload games to DS's all day.
Jeff: Do you think it would be a wireless download or a corded one and would it be to a DS cartridge or a blank GBA cartridge?
Glen: Clearly wireless and to rewritable DS cards. If you can play 8-player-multiplayer with a single cartridge, I don't see why a quick wireless download couldn't happen. What about that movie theater thing they're talking about with the Pokemon movie? Sounds like they have a lot planned for the DS's wireless capabilities.
Jeff: How many people go see the Pokemon movies these days? The first one did very well but subsequent releases have seen very little business.
Glen: I've never seen one. I don't know.
Jeff: And who's going to go see a Pokemon movie just to get a few DS games? That's like 15 bucks to download a few demos. Sounds like more of a dream to me. Sounds more like a way to boost ticket sales for Pokemon movies.
Glen: It's just meant as an added benefit for those that do go. You're thinking about this in the wrong light though. We should be thinking about "How is Nintendo going to do this?" And moreover, "What further plans do they have?"
Jeff: It could work if Nintendo sets up a DS network. If people could download demos from home I could see it working. But that would require a lot of bandwidth and expense that I don't see Nintendo going through with at this point in time.
Glen: Hmm. It's possible competition will force Nintendo to do it. It amazes me how quickly Nintendo manages to launch these portable systems. For instance, it's less than a year since The Nintendo DS was announced at E3 and it's already going to be on shelves with nearly 10 titles. It's pretty crazy how well they know this market.
Jeff: Now I agree with you there. But I think Nintendo announced the DS well into its advanced stages of development, whereas Sony chose to announce the PSP before it even existed.
Glen: Heh. But I don't think actual game development really started before the beginning of this year.
Jeff: However, yes I think this outlines the philosophy of Nintendo today. I see the DS as the direct result of Nintendo learning of Sony entering the market. I think we would still have GBA today if that didn't happen. And if the DS doesn't do as well as expected, Nintendo has the Game Boy Evolution in the pipeline.
Glen: Definitely, the DS is a complete reactionary creation (and a great one at that). Nintendo is using a sort of cannibalistic strategy with this. While the GBA SP/Evolution might eat into the DS and likewise the DS might eat into the GBA's market, I think Nintendo's market as a whole will only grow.
Jeff: Right, with the DS and GBA I think Nintendo will retain a significant portion of the market.
Glen: I really think Sony's PSP is going to be relegated to a niche.
Jeff: But in making the DS backwards compatible, this is a huge incentive for all GBA owners to upgrade. They can still play all their games (for GBA). And once they buy the DS system, it's only a matter of time before they start purchasing some new forms of software.
Glen: True. But I still think together, the results of the DS and GBA will be a larger market. In fact, I think the DS has a great potential of attracting a larger female audience. I think Nintendo's Puppy Dogs is going to be a key title at starting this trend. Hopefully Nintendo is preparing some advertisement campaigns geared to the female audience too.
Jeff: Hah, that's only if you think female gamers are into that kind of thing. But it's very true that titles like Animal Crossing and Harvest Moon attract more female gamers. They attract a varied audience in general.
Glen: I suppose, but you also have to account for the growing number of females getting involved in the development of games. I think female game developers will find the whole touch screen and its capabilities attractive and will put them to use. It's inevitable that the female gaming audience will be catered to. This industry is growing so damn fast afterall. So perhaps it's premature for me to say the DS will do this in particular. Nevertheless, I do feel with the DS, the potential is much stronger.
Jeff: I don't think any audience needs catering to, personally. A good game is a good game.
Glen: They cater to women with television, why not with games? Anyways, back to what we were talking about earlier. Iwata mentioned a while back that for the launch of the Revolution, Nintendo would be spending a substantial amount of money on creating new franchises. I think Nintendo really is looking to maneuver itself back into the market. Just look at the new realistic Legend of Zelda for an example.
Glen: Whether these new franchises will appeal to the older demographic or not I suppose we'll just have to wait and see.
Jeff: Definitely. I hope Nintendo takes that same philosophy and applies it to the next Super Mario game.
Jeff: However, I'm still very skeptical about Nintendo investing in new franchises. We were told the DS would be a new way to play new games and yet Nintendo hasn't shown us any new franchises with it. In fact, they've done the exact opposite. How can we expect things to be any different with the Revolution? It seems to me like they will, yet again, want to use their characters to make this transition easier.
Glen: Yes, but the Nintendo DS launch was done in a hurry. Nintendo wanted to beat PSP to the punch. I don't see the Revolution launching until at least 2006. There's still plenty of time.
Jeff: Some have said that they believe Nintendo will launch in 2005. But I agree with you. In a recent interview with Reggie, he stated that they were looking to launch competitively with the PlayStation 3.
Glen: So here's a random question, how do you see Nintendo's position being in five years time?
Jeff: Hmm. I wish I could say. There are so many variables right now that it could go any way. Nintendo has a lot of critical choices to make in the near future. If you're wondering whether I believe Nintendo will be a third party, then no. I believe that is a ridiculous notion. However, I doubt that it will be the number one console manufacturer either.
Jeff: How about you?
Glen: I think Nintendo DS is going to become the next fad that everyone clamors about (maybe not on the level of Pokemon, but close). I think it's a smart move for Nintendo to attach its name to the DS. The system is sleek, stylish, and impressive technology-wise. Kids, and well, gamers of all ages are going to eat it up. I think Revolution has huge potential. Nintendo is clearly willing to compete and appeal to older gamers -- Resident Evil 4, Metroid Echoes, The Legend of Zelda. Nintendo is-a changing. And when it comes down to it, there's no one better in this industry at creating the gameplay. I see Nintendo surprising everyone this next generation...and even if they're not number one in the home console arena, they'll be a very strong and healthy competitor.
Jeff: Are you planning on buying a DS?
Glen: Not this year, but eventually...definitely. Yoshi's Touch and Go, Wario Ware DS -- there's no way I can resist it. How about you?
Jeff: Lots of games look good, but I would like something really fresh. Feel the Magic XY/XX looks pretty neat. I don't know if I'll have the funds to pick up a new system this year though. I am already hoping I'll have enough to get Paper Mario 2 and Metroid Prime 2.
Glen: Yeah. Sega is good at creating those sort of neat, stylish games. I actually haven't bought a new game in ages. I'm not sure if I'll be able to afford anything later this year either. I think the last games I picked up were Beyond Good & Evil and Prince of Persia.
Jeff: Hah, Harvest Moon: A Wonderful Life and Metal Gear Solid: Twin Snakes for me. I've been playing a ton of games lately though. I'm a huge fan of Burnout 3. I think Electronic Arts really brought that franchise out of the gutter. It's a lot better than before.
Glen: I've been playing some retro games lately, heh. Been logging a few hours on Chrono Cross.
Glen: Heh, check this out. "Nintendo says 'touching is good' in sexed-up DS ads."
Jeff: Do you think that Nintendo's Revolution will really live up to its tagline?
Glen: No one is really expecting much from Nintendo -- everyone is focused on Microsoft and Sony. The only direction for Nintendo to go is up. I think Nintendo can pull it off and surprise everyone. Nintendo seems to be striving for the innovation and regaining the energy it had back during the 80s/90s.
Jeff: Yes, I agree with you. Oh, a positive thing I have seen lately is GameCube commercials for third-party titles. Games like Tiger Woods and several other titles have commercials that are geared towards GameCube owners. This is great. I'm glad Nintendo is investing in this.
Jeff: Oh, there is an interesting quote in a recent Reggie interview. Let me dig it up. It almost hints at online gaming.
Glen: "We believe that the consumer wants more in the area of community, and we are looking at how to deliver that. We think the online approach of today is a bit flawed. We think the consumer wants a better way. And that's what we're looking to do with Revolution. What I am saying is that with our next home console we will address the area of gamer community. You said "online." I used "online" as a description of a flawed business model. We are passionate about enabling our gamers to play with their friends [and] to play with others across long distances. There are a number of different ways to execute that."
Glen: Ha, beat ya to it!
Jeff: Heh, so what do you think he means by this?
Glen: I'm not sure exactly. It sounds like something wireless related but I'm not really familiar with that technology and its limitations. Perhaps Nintendo has developed a solution to its limitations. I do know what Nintendo's desired model is though: it's people connecting together simply and for free.
Jeff: Simple is always a key with Nintendo.
Glen: Yep.
Jeff: That quote has me wondering a lot. Many online games are free. So it couldn't just be that they're making it free? They must believe they have developed a way to make online gaming more personal and less random. So that it's more like playing with your friends.
Glen: Well, he kinda says "online" in the fee-and-extra-equipment sense is flawed. So either Nintendo has a solution to create a zero fee and also a way around the extra equipment such as broadband...or I dunno. Although, I think it is something Nintendo has been striving towards since the beginning of its existence in this industry. Whether it's connectivity, four-player multiplayer...these are all sort of derivatives of an ultimate free and easy to access connection. The word "online" I suppose doesn't necessarily even have to be used.
Glen: So perhaps a Revolution, in a gaming (connection) sense, really is coming.
Jeff: Yeah, looking back at that quote again, I think you're right. Though I doubt Nintendo can find a way around broadband equipment, perhaps Nintendo really has devised a way to make online gaming a reality. Perhaps they really are going in that direction...
Don't agree with the positions taken by Jeff or Glen? Want to have your voice heard? Send questions, feedback, or even a bit of ranting to qa@n-sider.com.