The following is a reader response to the mini-editorial "Entertainment's Future is Online" posted yesterday.
From M. Behrens:
I find it hard to accept that games as they are currently distributed
on disc will ever be downloadable. It seems that the sheer size of game data is increasing exponentially (and to no useful purpose, but that's another editorial entirely). We can easily accept delivery of an image from a ROM-based system today, but even a GameCube game with its lower capacity would take even someone who's bought the highest available cable speeds would take hours.
In addition to the sheer slowness of it all, it's easy and cheap to build the server infrastructure to deliver 128Kbit music tracks, but quite expensive to deliver the kind of data that a game would require, as often as people would no doubt like to get into them. This makes streaming game assets difficult as well; the infrastructure now must not only be high-capacity but reliable enough to keep the experience as smooth as it is today. It's one thing if your streaming radio station craps out on you; it's quite another if your game bails because it can't load the next level.
Now, after all that negativity, here's what I think we *do* need to help break the retail/gaming-magazine stranglehold on what sells:
1. Online retailers need to be able to order and sell new copies of titles even after brick-and-mortar retailers don't want to pay for the shelf space anymore. Now, to be truthful, I don't know if this actually goes on -- but in mid-2004 I was literally unable to find a new copy of WarioWare, Inc., which had only released in May 2003, in any store, brick-and-mortar or among the reputable online dealers. I ended up buying a used copy. I suspect that titles are simply made unavailable after their retail shelf life is up.
2. Online retailers need to be able to provide a competitive value proposition that can beat the brick-and-mortar retailers' deals, in order that they may get enough customer loyalty to build a good purchase history as well as incorporate customer ratings into the mix. Right now it's literally impossible to beat a brick-and-mortar deal with an online purchase, especially when you factor in shipping, as well as the urge to get the game on release day. I suspect publishers need to lighten up a bit on this front even if they risk alienating their brick-and-mortar allies.
3. The recommendations need to be good. Some sites have really crappy recommendations. This may be more of an issue with games because of the tendency I've observed of some of the less reasonable gaming public to rate games with no solid basis -- i.e. rating a new release they haven't even played five stars because it looks pretty or is a sequel to something they've played before, or rating a release on another system into the toilet because they're a fanboy. This could prove to be a hard nut to crack.
Response: Appreciate the comments, Mr. Behrens. I can see you've given this topic more thought than I have. Furthermore, you have several strong arguments that I wholeheartedly side with -- especially the three points above.
However, regarding the topic of the feasibility of games being distributed online, I'm still not fully convinced it won't happen in the future. In the case of Valve's Steam, you don't have to wait for the entire game to download to start playing. Of course there are going to be problems associated with this -- if your connection cuts out, you'd have to reconnect -- but it's definitely not a hurdle that can't be remedied as the technology matures. I think one solution would be to simply have consumers download the game level by level to their hard drive (or whatever other type of memory is used). This would be far more practical and feasible. Players could still play the sections that have completed downloading while they are waiting for the remainder. Additional levels are already being offered with Xbox Live. It's not nearly a full game, however I still have the feeling we're moving in that direction.
For anyone interested, feel free to continue this discussion in the N-Forums.