BusinessWeek Asia Regional Editor Brian Bremner is speculating on Wii success, allowing for the possibility that Nintendo's strategy could change the long-running console war game.
Bremner figures Wii has a shot by positioning itself for alternative appeal. "Nintendo thinks its game consoles—the Wii and the Nintendo DS handheld—will appeal to a mass market of first-time game players, women, and older consumers not typically drawn to this form of interactive entertainment," he says, noting investors support this strategy based on its notable success doing effectively the same thing with Nintendo DS.
However, Bremner makes it clear he doesn't feel Wii will eat into the bread-and-butter of Microsoft's Xbox 360 or Sony's upcoming PlayStation 3. "Few expect truly dedicated gamers to choose the Wii over the PS3 or Xbox," Bremner says. "And ultimately, the advantage may go to Sony." Bremner quotes Nomura Securities' Yuta Sakurai on this point, who predicts 71 million for PS3 and 40 million for Wii by 2011.
"A particularly strong showing by Nintendo may signal that reaching new gamers is more about ease of use than processor muscle and high-end graphics," Bremner concludes. "If so, the Wii could be a game changer."