February 04, 2004
By Mark Medina, Glen Bayer
Sony has proven that a year-lead release and games appealing to older gamers is enough to squeeze your console into the majority of gamers homes worldwide. Microsoft has attracted PC users and the college gamer to make the Xbox a mild success in areas outside Japan. Nintendo meanwhile has repaired relationships with key third-party developers and has opted for a format and technology that appeals to developers small and large.
All three console makers will have the opportunity in 2006 to bring a new technology and games to market that will form the next-generations of video games. Millions upon millions of dollars will be on the line and no one can afford to make a poorly executed first impression.
This is N-Sider's take on how we hope Nintendo molds its next-generation home console.
Glen Bayer says:
If there's one thing I'm certain of, is that Nintendo will be around forever. As long as there is interactive entertainment, Nintendo will exist. For crying out loud, the company is already over a century old. Enough of that...
Graphical Meltdown
I'm not too familiar with the lingo, however there is one thing I know for certain, graphics don't mean a damn thing. As the PlayStation has shown us two generations in a row as well Game Boy for nearly a decade, games are simply all that matter. Content is king of you, me and your mom's mom. If you have the games, you can talk the talk and walk the walk. If not, you're just a poser, using visuals to compensate for an area in which you lack. It's something similar to the middle-aged man and his BMW.
Besides, if you tell consumers your console is the graphic powerhouse, they'll believe you. Slightly true story...
People still have the absurd belief that the PlayStation 2 has superior graphics, all because Sony advertised it as such.
At the end of the day, games are really all you need. And if anyone has the games on its side, it's Nintendo.
Soulful Games
I have a feeling Mikami and company are going to reinvent the Resident Evil series with the release of Resident Evil 4. ...and with the movie coming out, it would be in Nintendo's interest to keep the series exclusive, including getting an online incarnation.
Speaking of exclusives, please Nintendo, don't hesitate to sign n-Space up for a sequel to Geist for release on or shortly after launch. The only thing North American gamers enjoy more than a good first-person shooter and a pepperoni pizza is a good first-person shooter with multiplayer and a free pepperoni pizza. Be sure to encourage n-Space to include a multiplayer mode that is incredible.
Of course, two games are not enough to define a console. With that in mind, I think Nintendo and its third-party partners will easily come up with the others - whether its Custom Robo, Viewtiful Joe, Too Human, Game Zero, Wario Ware, Killer 7, Tales of Symphonia, Soul Calibur and the many others that have not yet been made - Nintendo has a wealth of incredible licenses on its side. Nintendo just needs to be sure to keep the talent close and exclusive.
A new generation presents a new opportunity for Nintendo to change its image. To assist in this change, Nintendo needs to form partnerships with certain third-party publishers to promote the best editions of sports series - from EA's Madden, to Sega's new ESPN line - to attract that incredibly huge market of older gamers from the very start. Nintendo itself doesn't need to change the way it makes games. It just needs to change how it approaches and advertises to the market. Therefore, don't worry about Nintendo neglecting those of us who are kids or still kids at heart. I hope Animal Crossing 2 is high on the company's agenda for a next-generation release.
A new generation also presents a new opportunity to introduce new franchises. Nintendo has relied on Zelda, Mario, and Pokemon far too much this generation. It's time Nintendo creates a new franchise on the epic level of Mario and Zelda. In fact, the fans demand it.
Demos are a must. Let me say that again Mario Kart: Double Dash!! style. Demos are a must!! Nintendo probably already knows this after the success of the Viewtiful Joe demo and is why it chose to include one with preorders of Mario Kart: Double Dash!!.
However, I think they need to be more widespread than pre-orders. The initial games that are released for the next-gen console should include demos of other launch games as well as future titles. That way players can get a diverse taste of the initial offerings and can build up some anticipation for others. I remember my first experience with Metal Gear Solid being a demo (a video no less). It enticed me to purchase the game upon its release.
Playability Backwards
Backwards compatibility is really something Nintendo should consider. Nintendo is always concerned about having a smooth transition from generation to generation. Backwards compatibility is the only such way to make that happen. Developers won't cancel the development of GameCube titles due to waning interest, because they'll be assured their games will be available for both the current and next-generation audience.
If Sony continues its backwards compatibility, it will have nearly three generations under the PlayStation's belt. It has worked for Game Boy the past decade as well.
Hardriving Tech
There's nothing that has gotten on my nerves more this generation than Nintendo's memory cards. There is never enough room and I'm always stuck in a corner, being forced to delete a save file to make room for a new one. It doesn't help when some games (Animal Crossing) can take up an entire 52MB memory card. Microsoft has brought the hard drive to the home video game console realm. Nintendo, please use Microsoft's initiative to your own and your fans benefit. I know you could really put it to use with some of your games, creatively or whatnot.
Those are just a few of my thoughts. Even if Nintendo doesn't take my advice, I'm still confident the next-generation gamer's hearts will be filled with a passion for Nintendo. Nintendo is really focusing on diversifying and innovating its product lines. It's only a matter of time before the company releases the next "Pokemon/Goldeneye/Halo/Grand Theft Auto/Tony Hawk" - or in other words, the next "killer app".
Mark Medina says:
Nintendo has a massive opportunity to build upon the wrongs that they "right"ed with the GameCube. They corrected the 3rd party relationships "fiasco", they corrected the weakness of the cartridge format, and they corrected the low software count. The GameCube is a huge improvement on the Nintendo 64, and as I said, the opportunity exists for the next machine to be just as big (or bigger) an improvement on the GameCube. I wont touch on backwards compatibility or game franchises as Glen has pretty much said everything Id think of.
Id only add the fact that Nintendo should work just a little bit harder on the 3rd party relations just so there isnt a repeat of the GameCube "fiasco" and have some 3rd parties dropping GameCube support due to a lack of market penetration. Improving that situation, including all the things Glen talked about, and with Nintendo proven franchises and IP, Nintendos software library should look pretty formidable for the next system.
Power session.
When talking about power and features, if I applied Moores Law to GameCube then the next system Nintendo releases has the potential to be an absolute monster when it comes to power and features. First Ill list some of the general (and perhaps more important) specs of the GameCube:
Release Date (World-wide): Japan/North America, Sep/Nov2001. Rest of World, 2002.
"Gekko" CPU - 405Mhz
"Flipper" GPU - 202.5Mhz
Total RAM - 40Mb
16-bit sound processor, 64 simultaneous channels, and 48khz sampling rate
I wont go into a lot of detail, but these are some of the more relevant specs. So, going by the North American release date of November 2001, and the fact that Moores Law states that processor power doubles every 18 months, then by May 2005 the next Nintendo system could have a CPU with a frequency of 3,240Mhz or 3.24Ghz, and if we go with November, 2006 (ironically a straight 5 years since the GameCubes release) then we can look towards a staggering 6.48Ghz. Taking that line of thinking, the GPU could have a frequency of 3.24Ghz and we could be looking at a massive 640Mb of total system RAM for the system to work with.
And I would think that Nintendo will incorporate a fully discrete surround sound chip. Practically every potential console buyer in 2005/2006 will have some sort of 5.1/6.1 channel receiver and it would be foolish on Nintendos part not to cater to such a burgeoning field. Xbox already has full Dolby Digital 5.1 in most of their games, PS2 has a software-encoded DTS surround sound system in some of their games, and GameCube lags behind on a technical level with "just" Pro-Logic II, chiefly due to a lack of a digital audio out as featured on both PS2 and Xbox. Therefore its almost a given that both Sony and Microsoft will embrace something better than their current systems, and Nintendo should follow suit.
These are mind-boggling figures, but the most pertinent fact that we should consider is that by the time all three systems release, well be looking at three systems that will have relatively equivalent power; power that will be sufficient enough for all but the most demanding of developers. This means that a consoles power should not be the most important thing in the eyes of consumers.
Now, if it wasnt very clear today, it will be as clear as day then; It will be the games that will sell the systems. Im personally very confident that Nintendo will have a system equal to or very similar to the competing systems on a performance level. So, sales based on "hardware power" as Glen alluded to will just flatten out and the games will become the main reason people buy a system.
Media Talking.
As to the media involved, there is no doubt that DVD technology is here to stay for the foreseeable console future (Im thinking at least the next 2 generations), and what form of DVD technology depends on what is needed. Currently Xbox and PS2 can use up to 9GB (DVD-9) and GameCube uses DVD technology for its proprietary optical discs. Its possible that the next level of DVD technology, "Blu Ray", may be used by Microsoft and Sony giving their systems something in the region of 20Gbs to play with, and it wouldnt hurt Nintendo to use something similar and go with a disc capable of holding at least 7 or 8 Gbs. This will help to avoid multi-disc games like Resident Evil Remake, or the PSX-style Final Fantasies.
Knowing Nintendo, they will want to opt for something that will combat piracy just as well as their current GameCube discs, so you can forget "standard" DVD-9. What Microsoft and Sony use will also probably not be used by Nintendo due to any number of reasons. Nintendo likes to have as much control as they can with their systems, and using something "almost" DVD but with essentially proprietary "extensions" worked quite well with GameCube. I would see no reason not to do something similar with the next system provided the capacity was increased accordingly to match developer preferences. Nevertheless, it may be time for Nintendo to eschew their old ways and just go with the flow and match Microsoft and Sony by using the same technology and same capacity. That way, in a marketing sense, thered be no perceived "weakness" on Nintendos part.
Its da features baby, da features.
The features of the various consoles have been very different and very powerful in driving sales in this generation. If you look back at all the previous generations, all of the features were essentially the same. They all had 2 or 4 controller ports, they all had some sort of expansion port(s), and they were all relatively equal in the amount and type of features they had against each other. (e.g. SNES and MD/Genesis were very evenly matched in terms of features, Saturn, PlayStation and Nintendo64 just as evenly matched minus the cart/cd-rom differences of course). But in this generation, we have one system having USB and FireWire ports with optional hard drive, DVD and CD playback, another with a built-in Ethernet port and Hard Drive, DVD and CD playback, and the other with multiple expansion ports in use by optional broadband and dial-up modems and a GB Player.
When all is said and done, GameCube is clearly the weakest in terms of built-in out-of-the-box features. And its here where Nintendo has one of the biggest opportunities to really grab some attention. Sony and Microsoft are keeping their cards close to their chest, and Nintendo have always been the most secretive videogame company, but its a given to assume that both Sony and Microsoft will keep the DVD playback.
Microsoft will obviously keep the hard drive and Ethernet port to continue the Xbox Live legacy. Sony will follow suit and incorporate a built-in Ethernet port and Hard Drive for PS2 Network Entertainment. As to other guesses, both Sony and Microsoft are gearing towards a central entertainment system for their consoles, so any number of further features will be included. Its a safe bet that both companies will offer a bewildering array of features in addition to being able to "play games", and it was the features aspect that also worked against the GameCube. Casual perception has GameCube "lacking" this or that, whereas Sony and Microsoft have them. Despite the fact that GameCube has its own innovations, like connectivity with GBA, and the GB Player, its still perceived to be the least feature-rich of all the consoles. And it didnt help when Nintendo banged on the "we designed the system for one purpose, to play games and games only" drum.
This time, it would do Nintendo no harm to include a massive amount of extra features in addition to being able to play games. Everyone knows by now that Nintendo are best at games, but it certainly wouldnt hurt if they bowed to customer demands and included plenty of other features. Its certain that Nintendo of America would want lots of extra features, and it just depends on what Nintendo of Japan have to say about it.
Imagine the marketing possibilities if Nintendo had a Hard Drive, an Ethernet port, USB ports, DVD playback, GBA connectivity, a GBA port, and had all the best games!! Nobody would argue that Nintendo had the "best" and most well featured system. Nintendo should do well to remember that the more they pack in and the more that comes included out-of-the-box can only help them further down the line. They should remember that optional extras never reach the sales penetration that they should, nor do game developers cater to a smaller proportion of "optional extras" owners. Just take a look at LAN capability, or online functionality, theres an excruciatingly low amount of games with these types of modes simply because to make use of them you have to buy things in addition to the host system. Sony made the same mistake with PS2, but they had other features to fall back on, Nintendo had nothing.
Of course, the stumbling block to all these features is price. Nintendo couldnt have such a great price today if they incorporated all these "extra" and probably needless features, but the upshot would be that theyd most likely be far ahead of Xbox today and relatively close to PS2 today.
In terms of price for the next system, Id rather pay the equivalent price of the Sony/Microsoft machines and get a multitude of extra features thrown in, rather than pay a really small price and get games only. At the very least I want LAN and online functionality built-in to the system, I could live without inbuilt DVD playback, and USB ports. But for the sake of perception, Id want Nintendo to match the others feature-for-feature and price-for-price. They already have the games, and the internal development teams to create original games, to stand higher than the other systems so matching them on features can only strengthen Nintendos brand perception.
Hardriving Tech 2
Even if Nintendo doesnt want to include a Hard Drive, they could still remove the need for memory cards by using other means. Flash memory is getting cheaper everyday, so in two or three years time, its feasible to include say, 512Mb or 1Gb of built-in flash memory to be used solely for game saves. That amount of flash memory, if used solely for game saves, would be more than enough for a few hundred games and possibly more than enough to last a person the entire life of the system. If its not enough space, then Nintendo could do something similar to Xbox and just include memory card slots just for completeness.