2001: The Nintendo Odyssey
2001 is here and without question, this will be one of the most important years in Nintendo history. The Game Boy Advance and GameCube are both slated to launch in Japan, North America, and Europe this year. With the Game Boy Advance, Nintendo is seeking to expand on the staggering success of its Game Boy Color line and the Game Boy brand as a whole. The big N is aiming to have no less than 24 million of the handheld game machines on store shelves from Tokyo to Toronto when all is said and done in 2001.
With the GameCube, Nintendo is seeking to rebound from the general disappointment which surrounded the Nintendo 64 game console. Sure, Nintendo's internal games were generally great and Rare proved themselves as the best second-fiddle in the business, but the alignment of the game universe has changed incredibly over the past five years.
The Nintendo 64 is on pace to become the lowest selling Nintendo home console, behind the NES and SNES. Not that 35 million N64s is nothing to scoff at - certainly Sega and Microsoft would kill for those kinds of sales - but the isolation of the 3rd party community lead to an N64 lineup that was generally very thin. The Nintendo 64 also had to be a humbling experience for Nintendo's ego, especially in Japan, where the Sony Playstation easily cruised to the no.1 spot. Add to the fact that Nintendo's "savior" 64DD add-on scarcely made a whimper when it was eventually released after several delays and Nintendo has a lot to prove on their home turf.
So what should you look for in 2001? Here's our first annual yearly forecast for Nintendo...
Game Boy Advance
Where do we even start with the Game Boy brand? We suspect that somewhere even Gunpei Yokoi himself is quite surprised with the success of the Game Boy Color. Twenty-four million Game Boy Advance units in 2001 may seem like overkill, until you consider the fact that Nintendo sold over ten million GBCs during the slow April-September six month period in 2000. Nintendo's internal development teams are very much focused on the GameCube, as today's console games require mammoth resources, but it's not hard to imagine Nintendo's sales reps being more giddy about the GBA.
Unlike practically every major console on the market, Nintendo will actually make a profit on every 32-bit Game Boy sold in 2001 on top of the inevitable gargantuan software sales. Nintendo should be very, very aggressive in making sure the Game Boy Advance is a big success. While it seems almost absurd that Nintendo should be nervous about the handheld market, Square's backing of the WonderSwan portable has to be a bit unsettling for Nintendo.
Even more alarming is the huge boom of I-mode enabled cell phone devices in Japan and crude game software available on cell phones. It's no coincidence that Nintendo's initial GBA lineup avoids the usual sugary Pokemon and platformer fare. Instead we have epic strategy titles such as Napoleon and RPGs like Golden Sun. Already confident that they will own the younger market segment, it seems that Nintendo is now set on recapturing the Super Famicom crowd with the GBA.
With email, web surfing, and cell phone compatibility, Nintendo knows the Game Boy Advance can be a hot item with both kids and teenagers. In the US, look for the emergence of the sports genre on the Game Boy Advance. Especially from EA Sports, who will likely be first in line to revamp their Super NES sports engines for Nintendo's fledging handheld. This will certainly add a new dimension to the Game Boy lineup. The bottom line here is that 2001 is going to be a tremendous year for the GBA.
The mysterious lack of an announced Pokemon game is a bit surprising, but perhaps Nintendo would prefer to launch the GBA with a balanced lineup and release a really advanced (no pun intended) Pokemon after 2001 or even as 2002 wears on.
GameCube
Well, we can say Nintendo's got the hardware right this time around. As we learn more and more about the GameCube hardware, it's quite evident that the machine is a very impressive box with some seriously hot silicon under its modest looking hood. As if to tease its critics and fans, Nintendo has been exceedingly cryptic about the GameCube console, but we definitely like what we've seen so far.
Lets get one thing out of the way right off the bat. Despite being the Nintendo equivalent of mega-hyped Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace (replace Jar-Jar Binks with the extremely unpopular cartridge medium), the N64 has managed to sell about 35 million consoles worldwide. Sure the die hard community wants another Super NES, just as Star Wars fans want another Empire Strikes Back, but all in all, Nintendo can't complain too much. The GameCube is free from the two biggest problems that plagued the N64 - the cartridge medium and an overall hard to work with architecture.
So right from the get go, Nintendo is in a better position with the GC. Expect better third-party support, of course, due to the better price differences in manufacturing proprietary DVD discs versus expensive cartridges. Will the GameCube be able to muster the same incredible third-party backing that Sony and even Microsoft can boast? Probably not. We're sure the likes of Capcom, Konami, Namco, Enix, and EA will support the GameCube well enough, but expect many third-parties to focus first and foremost on the Playstation 2. It is after all, going to have a larger installed base as 2001 wears on simply because of its head start.
Don't fret just yet, however. We expect many of the bigger name titles will end up being multiplatform. The GameCube might not get them right away, but they'll come in good time. Another key here is Nintendo's third-party relations in Japan. With president Hiroshi Yamauchi's reign quickly coming to a close, it's possible a younger, more open Nintendo will rise from the N64's ashes.
The key for Nintendo as always is their first and second party software. Here we can see the GameCube running circles around the N64 and probably even eclipsing the SNES. Nintendo's internal staff has been beefed up as the 64-bit era progressed, and the GameCube is very easy to work with. Nintendo's software teams can finally focus on the game play itself and not have to commit 2-3 years to each project. Of course EAD will be there, and we're betting Miyamoto-san will live up his promise and deliver some new franchise characters on top of the required Mario title.
Look for Nintendo's Euro affiliate; Rare Ltd to benefit big time with the coming of the GameCube age. During the middle of the N64 era, there were even those who even spoke about Rare's teams eclipsing Nintendo's mighty EAD team. As 1999 and 2000 came and went, however, Rare began to choke under the limiting Nintendo 64 hardware. Perfect Dark turned out to be too ambitious for the N64, with erratic frame rates, and came out far too late to make the same kind of impact that GoldenEye did. Don't be surprised to see Rare come out of the gates blazing with a strong GameCube showing in fall 2001. They finally have a mass-storage medium to work with and the GC architecture should do wonders for Rare's infamously long design times.
Also watch for Nintendo to really establish their "Nintendo Sports" lineup. It never caught on with the N64 simply because Nintendo introduced it too late (1998) and didn't consistently provide enough sports software. We expect Nintendo's NFL football title and Kobe Bryant NBA Courtside to make some serious noise in 2001.
The real story of 2001 for Nintendo might prove to be its shift in demographic. Conker and his off-kilter game world is definitely a sign of things to come. Just as Nintendo is surprising many with a more diverse GBA lineup, it looks likely that they will bring some very interesting and new types of software to the GameCube in 2001. The big N knows they own the younger market, and 6.5 million copies of GoldenEye can't be wrong. They may not be able to catch the Playstation 2, but after the respectable sales figures of the N64, it's likely the GameCube can sell about the same as the Super NES.
With the Game Boy Advance looking poised to shatter 100 million machines sold in under five years, you can see that the GBA/GC one-two punch combo might even work out to be more successful for Nintendo than the NES/GB pairing of yesteryear.
The Year of Nintendo
More than anything, 2001 should be a very exciting time for Nintendo fans. Instead of talking and speculating about next-generation Nintendo gaming, we'll be able to actually experience it for ourselves. Enjoy this, because there's nothing quite like that nice honeymoon period that comes with new hardware, and it only happens about once every five years as far as Nintendo is concerned. There's also a lot of interesting speculation and rumors about Nintendo at the beginning of the new year.
Industry buzz is rampant about some kind of deal with Nintendo and Sega. It's possible something might happen - perhaps a networking deal with Sega's parent company, CSK - but it doesn't seem too likely that Nintendo would fully buy out Sega. As the Dreamcast console ages, perhaps Sega will bring some software over to the GameCube and Nintendo could make a return to the arcade market under the Sega banner. But networking is really where a deal between the two rivals would make most sense. Nintendo needs a gaming network and CSK would no doubt love to offer Nintendo's popular franchises to an audience they can't reach with Sega's own games.
Our advice for Nintendo in the new year would be simple: go big or go home. With PS2 and Dreamcast already out and Microsoft flexing its marketing muscle with the XBox, Nintendo needs to be more aggressive than they've ever been. They have the hardware, they have the best internal teams in the business, they finally have a real solid third party lineup worthy of the "Dream Team" moniker, and they're also starting to expand their horizons. And who knows, maybe we'll actually get a new Metroid game this year
Pete Deol